Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

It’s day two of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. And that means, today’s the last truly "calm" day before things really heat up.

For those who missed it, this year’s World Cup has a new expanded format. 48 teams. 72 group stage matches. And with only 2 games scheduled yesterday and another two today, that leaves a whopping 68 games to play in the space of just two weeks.

That means, tomorrow, things are going to start ramping up. 3 games tomorrow. 5 games Sunday. And then, an average of 4 games a day until the final four days of the group stage when the schedule explodes to 6 games a day.

All of that to say, there’s a lot of action to come.

But until then, we’ve still got to get through today. So let’s get into it and take a look at what’s ahead.

What’s ahead in today’s edition:

• Why this year’s new format might end in tears. 😢

• Today’s match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top pick of the day. ✅

Sharing is caring: Help grow the team and show your friends you care — send them this link https://whataretheodds.io/subscribe

🇨🇦 Canada vs 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina

• 📅 Time: 15:00 ET

• 🏟️ Venue: BMO Field

• 🌍 Location: Toronto

🇺🇸 USA vs 🇵🇾 Paraguay

• 📅 Time: 21:00 ET

• 🏟️ Venue: SoFi Stadium

• 🌍 Location: Inglewood, California

Want to get the best odds on today’s matches?

As we mentioned in the intro, this year’s World Cup has a new, expanded format. But the implications of that isn’t just “more matches”.

Back in the “old days”, the format was simple.

• 32 teams.

• 8 groups of 4.

• Top 2 teams from each group advance.

• 16 teams enter the knockout stage.

This year, however, things are slightly more complicated.

• 48 teams.

• 12 groups of 4.

• Top 2 teams from each group automatically advance.

• The 8 best third-placed teams advance (there’s the complication).

• 32 teams enter the knockout stage.

If you remember back to yesterday’s edition, that final detail brings some complications with it in the form of tiebreakers. And with one of those tiebreakers being a literal game of chance (drawing lots), there’s the potential here for a few surprises (some might call them upsets).

What’s interesting here is that these surprise advancements could have far reaching consequences.

How so?

Well, let’s start with a simple fact. Group-stage football is somewhat immune from good luck and random chance. With teams playing multiple games, the highs and lows tend to average out. If one team suffers from a bad night’s sleep, a red card, and a coach in a bad mood, then whatever — there’s always the next game.

But in the knockout stage, one bad game and it’s over.

And that’s why this year’s format increases the odds that we see some real upsets this year.

Back in the old days where only 16 teams advanced, the knockout stage was mostly comprised of what we might call “serious contenders”.

But this year, with 32 teams advancing, we might very easily find ourselves in a situation where a team like Ecuador advances and finds itself facing a team like Argentina.

And while we’d all like to think Argentina would absolutely blitz Ecuador, don’t forget what happened during their World Cup Qualifying run. Ecuador beat Argentina 1-0.

And that’s all it takes for a serious upset to happen at the knockout stage. One team has a little extra good luck, the other has a bit of bad luck, and bang. Suddenly, a team that barely had a chance of making the final 16 is knocking out a hot favorite.

And this year, there’s a full 16 of those “small nation” slots.

Should be fun.

⚽ USA vs Paraguay
🏟️ 2026 FIFA World Cup
📅 Saturday 13 June; 03:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Who doesn’t want to see how this year’s biggest host is going to fair at this year’s World Cup?

• Top 3 Stats:

  • USA is currently #17 in the FIFA World Rankings

  • Paraguay is currently #41 in the FIFA World Rankings.

  • These two have met 3 times in the last 10 years, with the USA having 2 victories and 1 draw from 3 matches.

• CXSports says: The USA’s going to be feeling good coming into this one. For starters, they’re playing on home turf, and that’s going to count for a lot. But, more generally speaking, they’ve also had a respectable lead in to this year’s World Cup, including a solid 3-2 victory over Senegal. And while that might not sound quite as convincing as Paraguay's 4-0 victory over Nicaragua in their pre-World Cup friendlies, keep in mind the skill gap. Beating a team like Senegal is a whole lot more demanding than taking on some team that’s lagging all the way back at one-hundred-and-thirty-something in the FIFA rankings.
  
  With that said, the USA has a habit of letting itself down in defense — 11 conceded in their last five and only one clean sheet in their last 13. On the plus side, they might get away with that here. Paraguay has all the hallmarks of a low-margin team. Just look at their CONMEBOL qualifying numbers — 14 scored and 10 conceded in 18 matches. That’s just 0.78 scored and 0.56 conceded per game. And while that’s definitely a tight defense, the USA is no slouch on the offense, so there’s a good chance they can break through here. The only question is, can the USA’s defense stop itself from leaking an excessive number of goals?
  
  Our instinct here is to say yes, the USA should be able to hold its own against Paraguay’s attack. After all, Paraguay didn’t even manage to score a goal per game in qualifying, and there’s no reason to think that’s going to change much here — at most, they might be able to sneak through one. And, if that much is true, then so long as the USA can keep the pressure on with their offense, they should eventually crack Paraguay and keep this to a draw, although the more likely outcome remains a USA victory.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for USA

Bet Option #1

• Bet: USA Victory

• Odds Range: 1.68-2.00

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Double Chance (USA / Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.13-1.25

Make your sportsbook work for you.

Tomorrow, things start heating up with a full three games scheduled: Qatar vs Switzerland, followed by Brazil vs Morocco, and finally Haiti vs Scotland. And yes, you can bet we’ll be back.

Same time, same place (your inbox).