Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

Today, we’ve got a great little grudge match coming up as France takes on Senegal for the first time since Senegal whooped them in the 2002 World Cup.

Can’t wait to see how that one turns out. Although, if the birds have anything to do with it, France probably has it… but more on that later.

What’s ahead in today’s edition:

• How “number of birds” became a soccer stat. 🐦

• How to smuggle a chocolate bar into a game. 🍫

• Today’s full match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top pick of the day. ✅

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Today, we’ve got just 3 matches coming up. (Note: all dates and times are in Eastern Time)

🇫🇷 France vs. 🇸🇳 Senegal

• Time: 15:00 ET

• Venue: MetLife Stadium

• Location: East Rutherford, New Jersey

🇮🇶 Iraq vs. 🇳🇴 Norway

• Time: 18:00 ET

• Venue: Gillette Stadium

• Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts

🇦🇷 Argentina vs. 🇩🇿 Algeria

• Time: 21:00 ET

• Venue: Arrowhead Stadium

• Location: Kansas City

Make your sportsbook work for you!

Being the types who like to dabble in a little soccer match prediction, we’re always on the lookout for useful new statistics around here at What Are the Odds?

And this week, we might have found one of the greatest we’ve ever seen, courtesy of some random on Reddit who clearly has way too much time on their hands.

Here’s the original post:

What’s your take? Should we start incorporating “number of bird species” into our World Cup predictions? After all, a 6-out-of-7 hit rate is much better than any other prediction model we’ve ever seen.

Let’s see how it holds up over the next few days.

If you’re anything like us, then there’s a good chance you’ve been following the World Cup via social media more than through the traditional sources. And, if you have, then you’ve probably run into a bunch of memes about how weird the USA is.

Here’s one we’ve been seeing a lot of:

At first, this definitely feels like it fits into the “it’s funny because it’s true” category. Or, at least, it does for those of us who aren’t Americans who also buy into the whole “guns everywhere in ‘murica” myth.

Unfortunately, this one doesn’t quite check out. Even the most gun-loving states in America tend to have some limits. The great state of Texas is one example. While you certainly have the right to carry a gun basically everywhere (even without a permit), it doesn’t mean private establishments can’t deny you that right.

Sadly for all you would-be chocolate smugglers, stadiums fall into that category. And yeah, the FIFA World Cup 2026 Stadium Code of Conduct absolutely makes a point of banning guns from stadiums.

Still, it was a nice idea that almost seemed like it should work.

⚽ France vs Senegal
🏟️ 2026 FIFA World Cup
📅 Tuesday 16 June; 21:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: This one’s a serious grudge match with a surprising past. Just don’t expect history to repeat itself.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • France is currently #3 in the FIFA World Rankings.

  • Senegal is currently #16 in the FIFA World Rankings.

  • Senegal won the only game these two have played: France 0-1 Senegal.

• CXSports says: It’s no secret that the French can be a little bit arrogant. What might be a little less known is how that arrogance once bit France in the behind way back in the 2002 World Cup.
  
  At the time, France was more or less in the same position they are now — at the top of the world with only a handful of serious challengers. And Senegal was all the way back in about 40th position in the FIFA rankings. And yet, Senegal came out on top of that match after France massively underestimated their African opponents. And while France hasn’t faced Senegal since, it’s not the last time France has made the error of underestimating a lower-ranked side hailing from the African continent. In case you’ve forgotten about it, France just lost 1-2 against Ivory Coast in the friendlies leading into this World Cup.
  
  So the question is, will France fall into the same trap again?
  
  If we rely purely on the stats, then the answer is a definite no — France isn’t a full 13 places ahead of Senegal in the FIFA rankings for no reason. And, if it weren’t for that surprise loss against Ivory Coast, they would’ve been undefeated in 10 games, with their last loss coming in a 4-5 blockbuster against Spain.
  
  Senegal, on the other hand, has had a bit more of an up-and-down run in the lead into this World Cup, 2W/1D/2L in their last 5. Although, as much as those results might look mediocre, we couldn’t help but notice how tight Senegal’s been keeping things in defense. In their last 5, they’ve only conceded 4 goals at an average of 0.8 goals conceded per game. And let’s not forget the fact they only conceded twice in the AFCON qualifying run.
  
  That’s enough to make Senegal a threat here if France lets its guard down. Even more of a threat than they were in 2002. But, in a strange way, that’s almost a positive for France — they’ll be less likely to underestimate their opponents this time. Particularly when combined with the sting of their recent loss to Ivory Coast.
  
  As for how all of this actually plays out on the field, we expect the fact both teams seem solid in defense to keep a lid on this one. However, with France’s attack being what it is, it will ultimately do most of the talking here. Also, France has 688 bird species, while Senegal only has 560. So clearly France wins this one. (But mostly because of the soccer.)

• Score prediction: 2-1 for France

Bet Option #1

• Bet: France Victory

• Odds Range: 1.33-1.52

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Under 3.5)

• Odds Range: 1.23-1.35

Make your sportsbook work for you!

Tomorrow, things start to pick up pace again with a full five fixtures on the schedule, including Austria vs. Jordan, Portugal vs. DR Congo, England vs. Croatia, Ghana vs. Panama, and Uzbekistan vs. Colombia.

And yes, we’ll be back with more coverage of all the action.

Until then, may the odds be with you and your team.