Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

With the World Cup group stage done and Round of 32 now underway, we’re taking a look back at some of the bigger plot twists so far. But more on that later.

First, here’s what’s ahead.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• This year’s group stage highs, lows, and plot twists. 🤯

• Today’s complete match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top pick of the day. ✅

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🇧🇷 Brazil vs Japan 🇯🇵

• Stage: Round of 32

• Time: 13:00 ET

• Venue: Houston Stadium

🇩🇪 Germany vs Paraguay 🇵🇾

• Stage: Round of 32

• Time: 16:30 ET

• Venue: Boston Stadium

🇳🇱 Netherlands vs Morocco 🇲🇦

• Stage: Round of 32

• Time: 21:00 ET

• Venue: Monterrey Stadium

Want to get the best odds on today’s matches?

With the Round of 32 now here (and Canada already through to the next stage), we figured it was a good time to look back at what took place in the group stage — who breezed through, who surprised, and who struggled more than they should have.

So let’s start with the “no surprise this team breezed through” category, starting with France, who had a near-flawless group stage with 3 victories, 10 goals scored and just 2 conceded. Argentina also had a similarly flawless group stage with 3 victories, 8 goals scored and just one conceded. But no surprises here.

Mexico, on the other hand, was a mild surprise. While no one was expecting them to trip up during the group stage, the fact they got through with three clean sheet victories in a row certainly stands out. Besides being the only other team besides France and Argentina to get through with three straight victories, they’re also the only team to do that with nothing but clean sheets.

As for other group-toppers worth mentioning, Brazil probably needs a special mention here. While their results were decent, they probably weren’t quite what we would have expected from one of the World Cup favorites given their opponents. And the general chatter around them does seem to be second guessing whether they’re really “back”. To quote one write up discussing the 3-0 result vs Scotland, the language is definitely more along the lines of “things feel like they’re starting to come together” rather than “this is a well-proven squad that’s operating at its peak”. With that said, Brazil is still (just) hanging onto its top-5 favorite status after briefly dipping outside of it earlier in the group stage. So it’ll be interesting to watch how they evolve from here.

And while we’re on the topic of “World Cup favorites that aren’t exactly wowing”, England’s probably also worth bringing up here. While their opener against Croatia certainly looked strong, their last two games against Panama and Ghana looked more like a team muddling its way through rather than asserting the sort of dominance on the field we’d expect from a favorite. Still, like Brazil, they’ve still managed to hold onto a spot as a top-5 favorite at the World Cup, so they’re definitely one worth watching.

But that’s enough about favorites and lukewarm performances (relative to pre-World Cup expectations). Let’s talk about some good news stories.

Obviously, it’d be remiss of us to not mention Cape Verde here — probably the biggest underdog story of this World Cup so far. Not only did they manage to qualify for the knockout rounds despite being the lowest-ranked team in Group H, they managed to do so undefeated (3 draws) and with a second-placed finish in their group. They were also the only team in their group to hold Spain to a draw, and even managed to contribute to knocking Uruguay (a 19th-ranked team in FIFA World Rankings) out of the World Cup entirely. Impressive stuff. Too bad they’ll find themselves facing off against Argentina in their next match (this weekend) which, if we’re being totally honest, probably means their dream campaign will be coming to an abrupt end.

The other massive underdog story from this year’s group stage has less to do with any particularly team, and more to do with an entire continent — Africa. For the record, the most African teams to ever qualify for the knockout stage in any single World Cup was 2. This year, 9 of the 10 teams that entered the tournament qualified for the knockout rounds, with DR Congo, Algeria, Cape Verde, Morocco, South Africa, Ivory Coast, Egypt, Senegal and Ghana all getting through.

This wasn’t just a case of a bunch of teams getting lucky due to an expanded tournament and some third-place trapdoor weirdness either. In fact, only four of Africa’s nine qualifiers finished their groups in 3rd place — Algeria, Senegal, DR Congo and Ghana — with the other 5 qualifying cleanly with 2nd-placed group stage finishes. 

And while we probably shouldn’t expect any of Africa’s qualifiers to threaten for the World Cup (but wouldn’t we love to see it!), it’s certainly going to be interesting to see how they fair over the coming knockout games and into future World Cups.

Finally, if we’re going to talk about notable group-stage performances, we can’t leave out Uruguay. Sadly, it’s for all the wrong reasons — a team that should have advanced (particularly given the expanded format) that somehow failed to. And apparently, the performance has resulted in enough national shame that the Uruguayan Football Association (AUF) has basically told the team, “about that private jet you thought you’d be taking to come home… well, too bad… you’ll be flying commercial now.”

Guess that’s just that nature of the World Cup — one team’s massive high is another’s massive low.

Here’s to hoping your team’s the one experiencing massive highs.

⚽ Germany vs Paraguay
🏟️ 2026 FIFA World Cup (Round of 32)
📅 Monday 29 June; 22:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: While Germany looks like a hot favorite (and still remains one), Paraguay could make this a tense game that’s well worth watching.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Germany is currently #12 in the FIFA World rankings, and finished the group stage #1 in its group with 2W/0D/1L, 10 goals scored and 4 conceded.

  • Paraguay is currently #37 in the FIFA World rankings, and finished the group stage #3 in its group with 1W/1D/1L, 2 goals scored and 4 conceded.

  • The head-to-head history is completely balanced. However, these two haven’t met in a head-to-head in over a decade with the last match taking place in August 2013.

• CXSports says: At a high level, Germany’s group stage stats scream “blitzkrieg” — 10 goals scored against just 4 conceded. However, it’s probably worth taking that aggregate with a very large pinch of salt given they’re skewed heavily by their 7-1 demolition of Curacao in their opener. Since then, Germany’s performance has been a little more tepid — a 2-1 victory vs Ivory Coast, then a 1-2 loss against Ecuador. So if we eliminate the Curacao result, we end up with a win and a loss with a scoreline of 3-3 on aggregate.
  
  Still, while Germany’s “real” form does look rather limp, it’s not like their opponents here are arriving on a hot streak. Paraguay barely scraped through the group stage after finishing in 3rd in the group stage. And with just two goals scored across its three games, it’s already looking like simply finding the net is going to be a major ask against a German side that, while lacking in sheer brilliance, is still putting up a passable showing in defense.
  
  With that said, there’s a real danger for Germany here. While Paraguay would inevitably crack under German pressure given unlimited playing time, Paraguay has shown itself capable of frustrating opponents by keeping the center compact and forcing attacks from wider, slower zones while waiting for an opportune transition/set piece moment. So if this one drags out to 0-0 at the 60 minute mark, Germany could find itself under more pressure than it would like.
  
  Still, it’s hard to deny Germany’s quality and depth relative to Paraguay, even if Paraguay has the potential to be too organised to be blown away. So we should probably expect Germany to escape from this one with a pass to the next stage of the knockout rounds.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Germany

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Germany Victory

• Odds Range: 1.24-1.42

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Under 3.5)

• Odds Range: 1.36-1.47

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s it for today.

Tomorrow we’ll be back with more knockout stage action as we gear up for Ivory Coast vs Norway, France vs Sweden, and Mexico vs Ecuador.

Until then, we hope you enjoy the soccer, even if your team’s out of the running.