Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

They say it’s important to dream. And, as “evil” as FIFA might be at times, they seem to also agree with that sentiment. But more on that later.

For now, let’s take a look at what’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?

What’s ahead in today’s edition:

• Why FIFA says this year’s World Cup is “a chance to dream.” 💤

• Today’s full match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top pick of the day. ✅

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🇦🇹 Austria vs. 🇯🇴 Jordan

• Group: J

• Time: 00:00 ET

• Venue: Levi’s Stadium

• Location: Santa Clara, California

🇵🇹 Portugal vs. 🇨🇩 DR Congo

• Group: K

• Time: 13:00 ET

• Venue: NRG Stadium

• Location: Houston

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England vs. 🇭🇷 Croatia

• Group: L

• Time: 16:00 ET

• Venue: AT&T Stadium

• Location: Arlington, Texas

🇬🇭 Ghana vs. 🇵🇦 Panama

• Group: L

• Time: 19:00 ET

• Venue: BMO Field

• Location: Toronto

🇺🇿 Uzbekistan vs. 🇨🇴 Colombia

• Group: K

• Time: 22:00 ET

• Venue: Estadio Azteca

• Location: Mexico City

Want to get the best odds on today’s matches?

When FIFA first announced the expanded 48-team format way back in 2017, it was billed (by FIFA) as “a chance to dream.” The argument went something like this:

• 135 of FIFA’s 211 members have never qualified for the tournament.

• The expanded format gives some of them a chance.

But as we’re all painfully aware of by now, not everyone was buying it. One of the more cynical takes here went a little like this:

• The old 32-team format had 64 matches.

• The 2026 format has 104 matches.

• That’s a 62.5% increase in match inventory.

• More match inventory means more broadcast hours/sponsorship exposure/hospitality/ticket sales/more content/more money.

And, to be fair, the idea that FIFA’s only doing it for the money certainly fits with the broader pattern we’ve seen. We need only look at ticket prices for this year’s World Cup to see where FIFA’s true priorities are.

The cynical take is also backed up by FIFA’s own numbers — FIFA’s revenue growth this cycle is huge. To quote FIFA itself, “The revised cycle revenue foresees a significant increase of 72% compared to the revenue achieved in the previous cycle.”

That’s absolutely huge. About the only other people out there growing revenue faster than FIFA are probably AI hyperscalers. And, yeah, FIFA absolutely cites “the expansion of its flagship tournaments in this period” as a key factor in that growth.

In any case, whatever FIFA’s true motivations may or may not have been, there’s one thing we can’t deny.

Both versions of the story are true.

Yes, FIFA is absolutely rolling in cash as we speak. But, at the same time, some teams are definitely receiving their chance to dream.

Even before this year’s tournament kicked off, Curacao was already winning Guinness World Records for the smallest nation to ever qualify for the World Cup. That’s not nothing considering it’s a nation with a population of just 156,115.

We’re also starting to see more dream stories play out now the tournament has actually kicked off. The biggest one would probably have to be Cape Verde managing to hold Spain to a draw — something the fans celebrated as though it was basically a win.

And yeah, while we’re on the topic of “little team draws big team,” we gotta fess up — we totally got the Belgium vs Egypt call wrong earlier this week. (But in our defense, we did actually say Egypt would score, and that their defensive chops were good enough to make things difficult for Belgium, which is exactly what they did).

Anyway, with all of that said, the broader point is this: anything with FIFA involved tends to get a lot of negative press these days. And while some of that negativity is certainly warranted, it also gets in the way of seeing the positive.

So as the first week of the 2026 FIFA World Cup draws to a close, let’s all take a moment to forget about all the bad stuff — the ticket prices, the ridiculous travel schedules, and whatever else FIFA is to blame for.

Instead let’s take the World Cup for what it should be — our own “chance to dream” — and celebrate the good that still manages to emerge despite it all.

⚽ England vs Croatia
🏟️ 2026 FIFA World Cup
📅 Wednesday 17 June; 22:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: A World Cup favorite faces off in a grudge match against one very dangerous opponent. The double chance play also looks strong considering the odds haven’t totally collapsed.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • England is currently #4 in the FIFA World Rankings.

  • Croatia is currently #11 in the FIFA World Rankings.

  • The last time these two met in a World Cup (2018), Croatia defeated England, while England defeated Croatia in the most recent game on record (2021).

• CXSports says: With England being one of the favorites to win the World Cup, this should probably be a simple case of “England takes the victory.” Especially when we consider their qualifying numbers (8 wins from 8 games with 0 goals conceded).
  
  But here’s the thing — Croatia has already proven it has what it takes to stand up to the Englishmen. What’s more, they did it in a World Cup, defeating England 1-2 Croatia in the 2018 edition (where they went on to finish as runners up). And, much like England, Croatia also had an undefeated qualifying run, even if they did concede 4 goals (0.5 per game) and have one of those games end in a draw.
  
  Of course, if we’re going to dig up ancient World Cup history to build a case for Croatia, then we probably also need to pull up the full context.
  
  For those who don’t remember, England was only just emerging from one of its historical slumps back in 2018. At the start of that tournament, they were back in #12 on the FIFA rankings, and only managed to make it back to #7 by the end. That more or less put them on par with Croatia at the time, who was occupying the #12 spot by mid tournament, only to climb to #4 by the end.
  
  Today, things are slightly reversed. Croatia has been in a slight decline since, and hasn’t climbed higher than #6 since 2019. Over the same period, England hasn’t dropped below #5. And, they’ve also won both games they’ve played against Croatia since that 2018 World Cup game.
  
  We also have to make a point of the fact that England’s current form is also marginally better. Besides having a stronger qualifying run, their pre-World Cup friendlies also ended better, with 2W/1D/1L for an aggregate of 5-2. Croatia, on the other hand, has 2W/0D/2L and an aggregate of 5-7.
  
  All of that to say that England remains the favorite for this match. However, with Croatia both a proven entity against England, and a side that’s clearly able to hold its own on the international stage, they’re definitely too dangerous to write off here. And while we’re not giving Croatia much of a chance at winning this game, we give them almost as much of a chance at drawing it as England has at winning.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for England or 1-1 Draw

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Double Chance (England/Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.13-1.20

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Under 3.5)

• Odds Range: 1.16-1.30

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s it for the day. We’re off to enjoy the World Cup.

Tomorrow, we’ve got Czechia vs. South Africa, Switzerland vs. Bosnia & Herzegovina, Canada vs. Qatar, and Mexico vs. South Korea on the schedule. So be sure to check your inbox for plenty more World Cup news, odds, and predictions.

Until then, make the most of your chance to dream.