Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

This weekend, we’ve got two of the more interesting matches coming up as Spain, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay duke it out to see if they can finally settle Group H after a couple of round one upsets left everything up in the air.

Oh, and we’re also going to take a look at why football’s actually bad for your health. But more on all of that in a minute.

What’s ahead in today’s edition:

• Football’s bad for your health (but the World Cup might make you immortal). 💪

• This weekend’s complete match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top pick of the day. ✅

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Saturday

🇳🇱 Netherlands vs. Sweden 🇸🇪

• Group: Group F

• Date: Saturday 20 June; 13:00 ET

• Venue: NRG Stadium

• Location: Houston

🇩🇪 Germany vs. Ivory Coast 🇨🇮

• Group: Group E

• Date: Saturday 20 June; 16:00 ET

• Venue: BMO Field

• Location: Toronto

🇪🇨 Ecuador vs. Curaçao 🇨🇼

• Group: Group E

• Date: Saturday 20 June; 20:00 ET

• Venue: Arrowhead Stadium

• Location: Kansas City**

Sunday

🇹🇳 Tunisia vs. Japan 🇯🇵

• Group: Group F

• Date: Sunday 21 June; 00:00 ET

• Venue: Estadio BBVA

• Location: Monterrey, Mexico

🇪🇸 Spain vs. Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦

• Group: Group H

• Date: Sunday 21 June; 12:00 ET

• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium

• Location: Atlanta

🇧🇪 Belgium vs. Iran 🇮🇷

• Group: Group G

• Date: Sunday 21 June; 15:00 ET

• Venue: SoFi Stadium

• Location: Inglewood, California

🇺🇾 Uruguay vs. Cape Verde 🇨🇻

• Group: Group H

• Date: Sunday 21 June; 18:00 ET

• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium

• Location: Miami Gardens

🇳🇿 New Zealand vs. Egypt 🇪🇬

• Group: Group G

• Date: Sunday 21 June; 21:00 ET

• Venue: BC Place

• Location: Vancouver, British Columbia

Want to get the best odds on today’s matches?

Ask anyone, and they’ll probably tell you “football’s good for your health.”

And it makes sense, right? You run around, kick a ball, and get a bit of exercise. And, for the most part, it’s all pretty safe (until Assim Madibo breaks your leg…).

Well guess what?

Football ain’t as great for your health as it seems.

Now, sure. Actually playing the game is probably good for you. That’s not under contention.

But as for being a fan… that’s where things get interesting. And we’re not just talking about “health risks posed by overindulging on (extortionately-priced) beer.” Because, let’s face it, you don’t have to be a football fan to drink too much.

Instead, we want to draw your attention to this paper we recently stumbled upon here.

That paper details the findings from strapping “high-resolution smartwatches” to the wrists of 229 Arminia Bielefeld fans, then tracking a bunch of physiological data. (Along with some survey responses.)

And the results are shocking.

The tl;dr — being a football fan is stressful. Really stressful.

Overall, the median stress level (according to the smartwatches) on a “normal” day (that is, a non-football day) was around about 24. But on a football day, the median stress level skyrocketed to 40.

And if that sounds “not that bad because it didn’t get to 100”, think again. The highest stress level and participant in the study recorded on a “normal” day was 50. Meanwhile, some fans were registering stress levels as high as 90 on football days.

That ain’t great, as we all know stress leads to cortisol levels rising, which isn’t ideal if you care about blood pressure, immune function, and your body’s anti-inflammatory response. (We’re paraphrasing here — we’re not doctors. Here’s our source.)

Oh, and just in case you’re thinking “it’s not the football that’s doing it — it’s the jumping around/screaming-your-head-off-type stuff that fans do”, it’s not.

Turns out, just the sheer anticipation of what was to come had fans stressing out hours before the game was even due to kick off. In fact, the sharpest rise in stress levels arrived 2 hours before kick-off.

Of course, that’s not to say stress levels were highest pre-match. They weren’t. They only continued to rise until 15 minutes after kickoff.

So guess it comes as no surprise that prior research has suggested “a link between spectator sports and an increased risk of cardiovascular events” with the theory being that, “the increased cardiovascular risk may be a rise in blood pressure and heart rate resulting from psychological stress while watching the game.”

So yeah, life’s tough as a fan.

While the players are out there on the field getting a good bit of exercise, all while getting proper warm-ups, substitutions, sports scientists, electrolytes, massage tables, and recovery protocols… us fans are stuck on the sidelines having heart attacks, growing grey hairs, and otherwise wrecking our immune systems…

Apparently…

You see, there’s something we think the researchers are missing here.

Sure, if you strap a smartwatch onto our wrists, then yeah, we’re probably going to look “stressed” when it’s football time. But the trackers are also quite limited.

Seriously, ask yourself this — can the trackers measure the sheer joy that comes from a shared ritual, the late goal, and the crowd going feral for one minute of impossible belief?

Nope. They can’t.

And guess what!?

Joy has been shown to boost immune system, fight stress and pain, and support longevity. (Again, we’re not doctors… so here’s our source.)

So let’s be honest here.

While the boffins in their labcoats might think they know best, we all know the deeper truth.

While the anticipation of a goal can certainly raise our heart rates, when that goal finally arrives, there’s nothing like it for making thousands of people feel, even if only for thirty seconds, absolutely immortal.

Here’s to hoping this World Cup gives you a taste of that immortality.

⚽ Spain vs Saudi Arabia
🏟️ 2026 FIFA World Cup
📅 Sunday 21 June; 18:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: After round 1, Group H went from “Spain should qualify comfortably” to “everyone’s tied and anything could happen.” That makes this a critical match for the Group H favorite.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Spain is currently #3 in the FIFA World Rankings.

  • Saudi Arabia is currently #59 in the FIFA World Rankings.

  • These two haven’t met since 2012. However, Spain has won all three head-to-heads between these two (2012, 2010, and 2006).

• CXSports says: It’s easy to look at this one and think “huh, Saudi Arabia’s got no chance.” But don’t forget what happened in round 1 — Cape Verde (only #67 in the FIFA World Rankings — lower than Saudi Arabia!) held spain to a draw.

  Of course, De la Fuente blamed that whole debacle on a lack of “freshness and finesse”, which is basically manager speak for “we effed up bad.” So you can bet there’s been “words said” and “lessons learned” in the locker room after that game. And chances are, those lessons are probably strong enough to avoid a repeat of last week’s “let’s just hog possession and put on an endless passing exhibition” performance. And if that much is true, then we probably need to take Spain on their broader merits rather than one bad game. So let’s do that.
  
  On the downside, Spain will likely be arriving somewhat handicapped, with Lamine Yamal being described as “available” but still “managing his return” from a hamstring injury. So whether he manages any more (or less) than the 25 minutes he managed against Cape Verde remains an open question.

  What’s less open, however, is the simple fact that even without Yamal, Spain’s squad depth remains elite (as you’d expect from the world’s #3 side). We need only look at Spain’s qualifying run to see evidence of this — unbeaten in 6 games with an aggregate of 21-2, which is borderline ridiculous when you realize that works out to 3.5 goals scored per game against just 0.33 conceded. It’s also far healthier than Saudi Arabia’s pre-World Cup performance which was rather mixed.
  
  Of course, Saudi Arabia’s pre-World Cup performance might be less relevant here. Last week’s draw wasn’t their first (nor biggest) “surprise” result at a World Cup. In fact, it was only 4 years ago that Argentina lost to Saudi Arabia in the group phase of the 2022 World Cup. So the draw with Uruguay is starting to look less like a “miracle” and more like a “okay, this team can occasionally perform when put on a big stage.
  
  Still, even taking that into account, there’s no getting around the simple fact here — Spain is, in every measurable way, the superior squad here. And not by a small margin. So while the whole “what might Saudi Arabia manage to pull out of the hat this time?” question does slightly lower the chances of a Spanish victory, a Spanish victory still remains the far more probable outcome.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Spain

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Spain Victory

• Odds Range: 1.05-1.14

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.32-1.43

⚽ Uruguay vs Cape Verde
🏟️ 2026 FIFA World Cup
📅 Monday 22 June; 00:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Another Group H match where first-round upsets have left an interesting dynamic just waiting to be resolved.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Uruguay is currently #18 in the FIFA World Rankings.

  • Cape Verde is currently #63 in the FIFA World Rankings.

  • There are no head-to-head matches on the records between these two.

• CXSports says: Cape Verde has shown itself to be a real surprise packet after it managed to hold Spain to an unlikely draw last week. But don’t read too much into it. While a draw’s a draw and we have to give credit where it’s due, we can’t ignore the fact that Spain simply wasn’t bringing their A game to that opener. Far from it.
  
  We also can’t help but notice that, while the scoreline might not have said so, Cape Verde was technically outplayed by Spain. The key stats here are Spain’s 74% possession rate, and Cape Verde’s 2.29 xG conceded and seven saves from that game. So there was a big element of luck there. Not to mention the fatigue that sort of “hanging on for dear life” play brings with it, which may well have a bearing on this match.
  
  Of course, we also can’t ignore the other side of this fixture — Uruguay, who found themselves trailing Saudi Arabia in their opener after conceding a goal at the 41st minute, only to just scrape in with an equalizer with 10 minutes to spare. Although, again, there’s a big element of “poor performance and a bit of luck” in this case, too. Nobody broke through cleanly in that game, and had Fernando Muslera (Uruguay’s goalie) not fumbled a set piece, that match might have ended very differently.
  
  So, much like the Spain vs Saudi Arabia fixture before, we probably find ourselves in a position where it’s best to just take each team on its pre-World Cup merits and ignore opening round foibles. And here, once again, the picture is clear.
  
  While Uruguay aren’t quite at the same level as Spain, there’s no questioning their credentials relative to Cape Verde. You don’t find yourself a full 45 places ahead in the world rankings for no reason. Nor do you even qualify for a World Cup if your qualifying path means facing off against the elite competition of South America’s CONMEBOL
  
  And speaking of South America, there’s potentially a useful point of comparison here. Both sides here have recently faced off against Chile. When Uruguay took them on right at the end of a relentless qualifying campaign, they finished with a goalless draw. When Cape Verde took them on (with much fresher legs), they lost by a 2 goal margin.
  
  And that’s probably a good indication of where this one’s headed — Uruguay by 2 goals.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Uruguay

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Uruguay Victory

• Odds Range: 1.30-1.52

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.35-1.55

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for this weekend. On Monday, we’ll be back with plenty more World Cup action as we gear up for Argentina vs. Austria, France vs. Iraq, Norway vs. Senegal, and Jordan vs. Algeria.

Until then, enjoy the weekend… and maybe keep one eye on your stress levels if you’re going to binge watch the football.