Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

MLS just kicked off what some are calling its “most pivotal season yet” in style, with a record 75,673 fans turning out to watch Lionel Messi walk through the wrong door in a moment of confusion.

Guess there’s probably still some truth to the old “retirement league” dig if the league’s players are forgetting simple directions…

Meanwhile, back on the eastern side of The Pond, Sheffield Wednesday just became the first club in English Football League history to have relegation confirmed as early as February.

Congrats, I guess…

And here’s what’s up in this week’s edition of What Are the Odds?

• This weekend’s top odds and predictions. 🦵⚽

• Some quick Lionel Messi history. 🏟️✨

• A little quote about listening to your gut. 🔥🧠

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⚽ Bournemouth vs Sunderland
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 28 February; 13:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: We like the double chance play here as a nice sure way to kick off the weekend.

• CXSports says: Bournemouth’s a clear statistical favorite here. With ~1.6 goals scored per game, they compare favorably against Sunderland’s ~1.1 goals away. Curiously, those broader goal averages, on aggregate, closely match the head-to-head average of 2.6 total goals per match and a BTTS rate around 60%. With that said, Sunderland’s been having a late-season slump and has been particularly poor on the road, which could mean we might see a slightly more subdued Sunderland here. Of course, their comeback win in their last outing shows they can punch above their weight, although we probably shouldn’t count on any similar comeback this time around amounting to anything more than a draw, and even that might be a stretch.

• Score prediction: 1-0 for Bournemouth

Option #1

• Bet: Bournemouth Victory

• Odds Range: 1.63-1.86

Option #2

• Bet: Double Chance (Bournemouth / Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.10-1.27

▶▶Full Match Details: [Read More]

⚽ Burnley vs Brentford
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 28 February; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Exceptionally good value on Brentford given what the stats seem to suggest.

• CXSports says: Burnley’s season to date has been poor — they’re scoring at a rate of 1.07 goals per match while conceding 1.93. And let’s not forget the fact that they’re well and truly in the relegation zone (19th with 19 points). And don’t think their home advantage offers any hope here — their home form is similarly atrocious. As for Brentford, they’re showing a much cleaner attacking profile, with 1.48 goals scored per game and a defense that’s keeping concessions to 1.37 goals per match. Combine that with a significantly better league position and the fact that Brentford handed Burnley a 3-1 defeat in their last meeting, which will no doubt be a major confidence boost, and the outcome of this match looks almost predetermined.

• Score prediction: 1-2 for Brentford

Option #1

• Bet: Brentford Victory

• Odds Range: 1.65-1.87

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.54-1.78

▶▶Full Match Details: [Read More]

⚽ Liverpool vs West Ham
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 28 February; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: With a relegation contender taking on one of the league’s better squads playing at home, this one’s a no-brainer.

• CXSports says: Liverpool’s home history and overall league positioning place them as a clear favorite in this match. They’re currently averaging around 1.9 goals per match (at home) and have beaten West Ham consistently in recent meetings, including a 2-0 victory in their last head-to-head this season. West Ham’s season, on the other hand, tells a very different story. They’re sitting well below Liverpool in the table (#18), and have a defensive record that sees them concede about 1.5 goals for each one they score. In short, it’s looking like West Ham’s going to struggle to keep up here, allowing Liverpool to walk away with a convincing victory.

• Score prediction: 3-1 for Liverpool

Option #1

• Bet: Liverpool Victory

• Odds Range: 1.22-1.43

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.28-1.47

▶▶Full Match Details: [Read More]

⚽ Newcastle vs Everton
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 28 February; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: The gap between these two isn’t as big as we’d usually like to see, given the odds. But the BTTS looks solid.

• CXSports says: Newcastle comes into this matchup with a slightly lower league standing, but better attacking numbers, especially at home, where they average around 1.6 goals against Everton historically and 1.56 goals per game this season. And let’s not forget their crushing 4-1 away victory at Everton in November, which was far from a fluke — it showed how Newcastle can exploit Everton’s defensive gaps to get ahead early and keep the pressure high. With that said, while Everton lacks a prolific attacking output, they’re not entirely mute. Their top scorers have 5 goals apiece in league play, and they’ve shown competitiveness when it matters. That should set up a dynamic where they’ll pose a serious challenge for Newcastle, even if it’s more likely than not they won’t come out ahead.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Newcastle

Option #1

• Bet: Newcastle Victory

• Odds Range: 1.57-1.83

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.53-1.75

▶▶Full Match Details: [Read More]

Want to get the best odds on these predictions?

While this past weekend might have shown us all that Lionel Messi is just like the rest of us (he makes dumb mistakes), we shouldn’t forget just how great he is where it matters — the football field.

Let’s see if you know just how great he is with a quick quiz from our friends at Masters of Trivia.

Question: How many Ballon d'Or awards has Messi won?

• A: Five

• B: Six

• C: Seven

• D: Eight

Think you know the answer?

Read to the end to see if you were right.

⚽ Leeds vs Man City
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 28 February; 18:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Maybe the best value this week — a very one-sided looking match with some very nice looking odds.

• CXSports says: Manchester City’s looking dominant right now. They’ve got the highest goals per game average of any side in the league (2.07), while still managing to keep things so tight in defense that there’s only one side conceding fewer goals than them (Arsenal). And as for results, they’re second from the top. Need we say more? As for Leeds, they’re in a world of hurt relative to City — they’re in #15, just 6 points shy of the relegation zone, and are conceding more goals than they’re scoring (1.37 scored per game vs 1.70 conceded). Of course, we can’t ignore Leeds’ recent draw with Villa and mixed form elsewhere — they’re clearly capable of fighting against better-ranked squads from time to time. But that fighting spirit is unlikely to hold back a top-tier attack for a full 90 minutes.

• Score prediction: 1-3 for Man City

Option #1

• Bet: Man City Victory

• Odds Range: 1.42-1.69

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.50-1.69

▶▶Full Match Details: [Read More]

⚽ Brighton vs Nottingham Forest
🏟️ English Premier League
Sunday 01 March; 15:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: If you’re looking for a safe play that’s still got a decent return, the double chance play here looks solid.

• CXSports says: While there’s only a handful of places between these two in the overall EPL standings, there are some clear differences once we look closer. For starters, Brighton has the head-to-head edge in this fixture, which includes a recent 2-0 league win at Forest last time these two met. Then, we’ve also got one of the “big” factors when it comes to winning a game — scoring more goals than you concede. Here, Brighton shines relative to Forest. While Forest has conceded at a rate of 1.44 goals per game while only scoring 0.93, Brighton has managed to maintain a positive balance with an average of 1.33 scored and 1.26 conceded per game. Throw in the home advantage, and the chances of Brighton taking this one start looking quite good.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Brighton 

Option #1

• Bet: Brighton Victory

• Odds Range: 1.75-2.18

Option #2

• Bet: Double Chance (Brighton / Nottingham Forest)

• Odds Range: 1.15-1.33

▶▶Full Match Details: [Read More]

⚽ Man United vs Crystal Palace
🏟️ English Premier League
Sunday 01 March; 15:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: A nice, clear favorite with some good value on the odds.

• CXSports says: Let’s leave current league form out of the equation here for a moment and look at one statistic that can’t be ignored — Manchester United’s historical head-to-head edge in this fixture. 17 victories to Palace’s 7. Now let’s layer in some league stats on top — United outranks Palace in the standings (#5 vs #13) and scores significantly more than Palace (United has 1.81 goals per game vs 1.07 for Palace). About the only front where Palace seems to have any hope is in defense, where they run a noticeably tighter ship than United. That might be enough to cause some friction for United by dampening their attack slightly. Unfortunately, unless they can respond in kind where it matters (goals scored), then this one’s most likely going to end in United’s favor.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Man United

Option #1

• Bet: Man United Victory

• Odds Range: 1.40-1.65

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.54-1.75

▶▶Full Match Details: [Read More]

⚽ Arsenal vs Chelsea
🏟️ English Premier League
Sunday 01 March; 17:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: This one’s far from a sure thing, but Arsenal still has an absurdly good chance of walking away from this one with the victory.

• CXSports says: To be totally fair, Chelsea’s not all that bad — put them against most other EPL contenders, and they look good. But let’s face it — Arsenal simply has the numbers here. They score more (2.00 goals per game vs Chelsea’s 1.78) and concede much less (0.75 goals per game vs Chelsea’s 1.15). And, in terms of head-to-heads, Arsenal’s ahead here, too. (6 victories in the last 10 head-to-head matches). Of course, that head-to-head data doesn’t rule Chelsea out entirely — on paper, Chelsea clearly remains capable of causing Arsenal problems. But if they’re going to do that successfully, it’s most likely going to take a small amount of luck mixed with a home-ground advantage. Unfortunately for them, the home advantage is Arsenal’s in this game.

• Score prediction: 3-1 for Arsenal

Option #1

• Bet: Arsenal Victory

• Odds Range: 1.50-1.70

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.53-1.77

▶▶Full Match Details: [Read More]

Make your sportsbook work for you!

Most of you probably already know the answer to this week’s trivia question. And even if you don’t, you already know Lionel Messi’s scored at least 5 Ballon d’Or awards (hint: he’s actually scored more).

And that’s gotta make you wonder, is there anything we can learn from one of the undisputed greats?

Turns out, there is.

Want to learn more about Lionel Messi?

Masters of Trivia is the only trivia app where every player is rewarded. Play all the trivia quizzes you can handle and earn real rewards simply for participating.

Take Masters of Trivia for a spin with the Lionel Messi Trivia Quiz today.

PS: The answer to this week’s question was [D] — Lionel Messi has won eight Ballon d’Or awards throughout his career. Discover more trivia like this with the Lionel Messi Trivia Quiz.