Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

Today, we’ve got a hot take nobody’s gonna like, but everybody needs to hear. But more on that later.

First, here’s what’s ahead.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• Why “it breaks the rhythm” is a dumb argument. 📝

• Today’s complete match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top pick of the day. ✅

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🇨🇮 Ivory Coast vs. Norway 🇳🇴

• Stage: Round of 32

• Time: 13:00 ET

• Venue: Dallas Stadium

🇫🇷 France vs. Sweden 🇸🇪

• Stage: Round of 32

• Time: 17:00 ET

• Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium

🇲🇽 Mexico vs. Ecuador 🇪🇨

• Stage: Round of 32

• Time: 21:00 ET

• Venue: Mexico City Stadium

Want to get the best odds on today’s matches?

If there’s one issue that won’t go away this World Cup, it’s the whole hydration break controversy. Even with the tournament reaching its halfway point, we’re still seeing a daily flood of social media whinging and opinionated editorial about how the whole thing is — to quote one of the more strongly-worded pieces we’ve seen recently — “an act of casual violence, one that changes not just the staging, but its most basic rhythms.”

Curiously, however, while hydration breaks have gotten an inordinate amount of attention, we’ve seen far less coverage given to the broader rule changes FIFA/IFAB introduced ahead of this year’s World Cup.

Why’s this curious?

Simple.

The rule changes FIFA introduced for this World Cup specifically target the “rhythm of the game” — the oft-cited reason most “hydration breaks are dumb” warriors tend to use when building their case.

Specifically, the rule changes target several “features” soccer has clung to for years, despite the fact that they often break the theoretical rhythm of the game. You know — all the usually shenanigans like players staying down after contact, goalkeepers slowing restarts, defenders taking forever over throw-ins and free kicks, substitutions used as late-game sandbags, teams gathering around injury stoppages for instructions, tactical fouls to kill transitions, long goal celebrations, etc., etc.

You see, there’s a mythology around football where people like to pretend it’s a beautiful game played by honorable men who endeavor to play two continuous unbroken halves where rhythm must be preserved above all else.

The reality on the ground, however, usually says that it’s anything but. And we only have to look at stoppage time in any tournament to see this.

Take the 2022 edition of the World Cup, for example. Average stoppage time (not counting matches that went into extra time) was 11.6 minutes per match.

Now sure. Some of that stoppage time was probably legit. Injuries happen. So do goal celebrations. So, we’re not saying that every single minute of stoppage time is the result of cynical time wasting. But with that said, we are going to go out on a limb here and say a huge chunk of it is.

While it’s still early days in this year’s World Cup (so we’ll have to wait for the final tally), the new rules seem to be making an impact. Compared with 2022, stoppage time has basically been cut in half, with matches now averaging just 96 minutes and 08 seconds.

And just to be clear, that’s not because FIFA told the refs to start tallying up stoppage time any differently this year — those changes were made in 2022.

So that really has to make you wonder, doesn’t it — when people say hydration breaks “break the rhythm,” you really have to ask, “Compared with what?”

A theoretically pure football match that doesn’t really exist?

Come on. Let’s be serious here.

Sure, a three-minute hydration break at roughly the same point in each half might feel like it’s breaking the rhythm because it’s mandated, predictable, and somewhat honest about its intentions.

But can anyone honestly look us in our collective eyes and say it “breaks the rhythm of the game” any more than a goalkeeper going down “injured” while the whole team sprints to the touchline for instructions?

Our take is that they both break the rhythm of the game. The only difference is that one of those is equal and predictable, while the other’s opportunistic and (more often than not) cynical.

We know which one we’d prefer, even if we hate the ads just as much as the next overly-opinionated guy.

⚽ Mexico vs Ecuador
🏟️ 2026 FIFA World Cup (Round of 32)
📅 Wednesday 01 July; 03:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Mexico’s dream run has been the stuff of legends. Let’s see if they can continue it.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Mexico is currently #9 in the FIFA World Rankings, and finished the group stage #1 in its group with 3W/0D/0L, 6 goals scored, and 0 conceded.

  • Ecuador is currently #24 in the FIFA World Rankings, and finished the group stage #3 in its group with 1W/1D/1L, 2 goals scored, and 2 conceded.

  • The last 3 head-to-heads between these two have all ended in draws (1-1, 0-0, 0-0).

• CXSports says: Mexico’s path to the knockout rounds at this year’s World Cup has been brutally efficient. With 2-0 vs South Africa, 1-0 vs South Korea, and 3-0 vs Czechia, Mexico’s clearly running like a well-oiled machine right now. And the fact that only two of those matches were played in Mexico City tends to suggest the current Mexican squad isn’t dependent on a hyped up home crowd to deliver the goods.
  
  Ecuador, on the other hand, looks a whole lot more modest in terms of raw numbers. And while their win against Germany does suggest that they’re not a team to be taken lightly, the fact they had to recover from a 1-0 loss to Ivory Coast and 0-0 draw with Curacao suggests the victory over Germany is far from representative of current form. That’s not to say Ecuador can’t sustain some of that momentum into this game. But the fact that Mexico hasn't conceded yet while still averaging 2 goals a game indicates Ecuador’s definitely entering this match on the back foot.
  
  Mexico’s playing style might also prove to be particularly problematic for Ecuador. So far at this tournament, Mexico seems to have preferred an approach based on patience and denial rather than outright aggression. And with Ecuador only averaging 0.66 goals per game throughout the tournament, it would seem Mexico’s not going to have too much problem with the denial part of its plan.
  
  With that said, Ecuador did break through Germany in its last qualifier. And, if it can do the same thing here and put Mexico in a position where it’s forced to chase, the dynamic here could get very interesting. It’s easy for a team to stay calm, composed, and in control of a game when they’re not behind. It’s another thing to chase, and we’re yet to see that from Mexico at this year’s tournament.
  
  It’s probably also worth remembering that Ecuador is more than capable of frustrating “better” teams when the moment presents itself. We need only look back to the international friendlies in the build up to the World Cup to see examples of this, including a 1-1 draw against Morocco (#8 in the world at the time; currently #6). And let’s not forget that Ecuador has also managed to draw against Mexico in the last 3 head-to-head matches these two have played, and even won a game four head-to-heads ago (although that result’s not 5 years old, so take it with a grain of salt).
  
  Still, despite Ecuador’s apparent strengths, it’s hard to ignore Mexico’s World Cup momentum. It’s also hard to ignore the fact that Ecuador basically had to summon a last-moment revival just to make it this far. And when you add in Mexico’s home advantage and unbroken defensive record, it’s hard not to see this ending in a victory of the Mexicans, even if we’re highly tempted to hedge that with the possibility of Ecuador keeping this to a draw.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Mexico for 1-1 Draw

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Double Chance (Mexico / Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.17-1.29

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 1.5)

• Odds Range: 1.57-1.75

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for today.

Tomorrow we’ll be back as we gear up for England vs DR Congo, Belgium vs Senegal, and USA vs Bosnia.

Until then, enjoy the football and try not to get too mad at the 3-minute ad breaks.