Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

They say the World Cup unites the world. What they don’t always say is that’s often subject to terms and conditions. But more on that later.

First, here’s what’s ahead.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• The World Cup — terms and conditions may apply. 📝

• Today’s complete match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top pick of the day. ✅

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There are no World Cup matches scheduled for today. The next matches are this weekend’s final and third-place playoff matches. (Note: all dates and times are in Eastern Time)

🇫🇷 France vs. England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

• Stage: Third-place match

• Time: Saturday, July 18; 17:00 ET

• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens

🇪🇸 Spain vs. Argentina 🇦🇷

• Stage: Final

• Time: Sunday, July 19; 15:00 ET

• Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

Want to get the best odds on this match?

They say the World Cup’s supposed to bring the world together. And when we landed on this article the other day, we couldn’t help but think, “yeah, maybe it does.”

To add a little context here, that article’s about a Rikers Island (notorious NYC prison) watch party where a hundred-odd men in tan uniforms sat around watching England vs Argentina while rubbing shoulders with the city’s top dog — Mayor Mamdani. And our first reaction was, “yeah, that’s the World Cup for ya — people from all kinds of backgrounds and all walks of life coming together to enjoy the beautiful game.”

Then we hit the next bit. There’s been a few of these watch parties at Rikers. But not everyone’s getting in — they’re an incentive for good behaviour. So maybe they’re not quite bringing literally everyone together, as much as that might be the World Cup’s great promise.

Now, to be totally fair here, this kinda makes sense here. After all, this is a prison we’re talking about. So you could make the argument that not everyone deserves the right to enjoy the World Cup.

But that leads us to another question. Because, if you think about it, it’s not just good vs bad behavior among inmates drawing dividing lines among people at the World Cup. We can think of a number of examples here.

Let’s start with the one that this year’s tournament has made more apparent than ever. Money.

The obvious thing to point to here is obviously ticket prices. Take FIFA’s face value at MetLife for the final — Cat 4 tickets (the people’s seats) were officially priced at $2,030, Cat 3 (upper tier behind the goal) at $2,790, Cat 2 at $4,210, and Cat 1 (lower tier, sidelines) at $6,730.

Then there’s the lounges. The Trophy Lounge at $32,500. Trophy Lounge+ at $34,500 (food and drinks included… which at that price is maybe the single funniest clause). Then, above all of it, a pitchside lounge at $57,500 per person.

And that was just the beginning because, as we all know by now, FIFA ran dynamic pricing on its primary inventory. So even the relatively “affordable” tickets got crazy expensive — Cat 1, for instance climbed well north of $30k.

Oh yeah… and despite the World Cup final being perhaps the richest, most-watched event on the planet, FIFA still hasn’t sold all of its inventory (as of July 15).

So already, there’s the “can you even afford it” thing dividing people at the World Cup. Although, to be fair, stadiums are limited capacity anyway, so its not like everyone who wanted to get in could get in anyway, even if tickets were free.

So then maybe there’s the other alternative — travel there for the event, cross your fingers and hope you get a ticket, but if not, fall back on just hanging out at watch parties/bars/etc. and enjoy the event for what it is.

But then you’ve still got to face the next hurdle — can you even get into a host country?

As regular readers probably already know, getting visas for host countries this year hasn’t exactly been easy, depending on where you’re from.

Even Canada, which we reported on a couple of weeks back runs a two track program. There’s the “visa-exempt” route — fill in a form online. Click click, you’re in (~96% approval rate). Then there’s the “you need a visa” route which was a little more divisive, to put it lightly. People applying from DR Congo faced a 96.1% rejection rate. Kenya: 91.1%. Ghana: 89.3%. Nigeria: 86%. Senegal and Cameroon: 85%+. Egypt: “only” 59.1% were rejected.

And it’s not like the Canada was some anomaly here. The US runs its own edition — a travel ban on 39 countries, four of which qualified (Haiti, Iran, Ivory Coast, and Senegal). Meanwhile, sub-Saharan denial rates sat at 30 to 60-plus percent.

But fine. Whatever. Maybe you don’t actually need to actually go to a host country to partake in the whole “coming together” thing the World Cup promises. After all, the prisoners at Rikers and Mayor Mamdani had a nice coming together moment that could have been held in any country on the face of the earth. The only thing needed was a TV.

Except, even that’s easier said than done.

Now sure, if you’re reading this from the UK, Australia, or one of the other places that have all 104 games aired on free-to-air TV, then yeah, access isn’t exactly a problem.

But not everyone in the world has free access to World Cup games. Across 43 Sub-Saharan African territories, New World TV held exclusive pay-TV rights to the full competition. Meanwhile, only 34 matches (about one per day) were designated for free-to-air sublicensing.

What’s perhaps most interesting here though is that, in several markets, ordinary broadcasters/governments struggled to finance those limited free-to-air rights. In Nigeria, Ghana, and Kenya, it wasn’t until last-minute late-June acquisition by SportyTV (owned by SportyBet) that those limited free-to-air rights were even secured.

We also saw similar situations happening elsewhere.  — South Africa’s public broadcaster SABC, for one, only secured its 34-game sublicence with the help of a deal sponsored by Hollywoodbets. Which, in a way, is maybe another nice “the World Cup brings people together” moment. After all, where else does one see a state broadcaster working hand in hand with a sportsbook operator?

These weren’t the only licensing hurdles, either. In fact, as late as May this year, it almost looked as though India and China weren’t going to have access to a single match. China eventually settled a deal through its state broadcaster, while India’s DD Sports eventually secured access from the quarterfinals onwards.

And that’s just a sample of the various barriers — good behavior, money, citizenship, TV rights — that sit between people around the world and the World Cup. Which kinda makes you wonder — the World Cup is usually praised for bringing the world together. And, at the level of attention, that’s true — billions of people do stop to watch the same ball cross the same line.

But 2026, perhaps more than any previous edition, has also shown just how unevenly that supposedly shared experience is distributed. While some supporters arrive visa-free and watch every match on free public television, others get left on the sidelines with near-certain visa rejection rates, partial broadcasts, or ticket prices higher than their country’s average annual income.

In other words, The World Cup™ unites the world.**

**Subject to visa approval. Approval not guaranteed. Not available in all territories. Refusal requires no explanation and carries no appeal. Terms vary by territory. See your federation, your broadcaster, and the officer at the desk for more details.

⚽ France vs England
🏟️ 2026 FIFA World Cup Third-Place Playoff
📅 Saturday 18 July; 23:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: We’re watching this for the Golden Boot more than anything else, although there’s a good case to be made for France here with some decent odds to match.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • France is currently #3 in the FIFA World Rankings and has 6W/0D/1L, 16 goals scored, and 4 goals conceded in 7 World Cup games

  • England is currently #3 in the FIFA World Rankings and has 5W/1D/1L, 14 goals scored, and 8 goals conceded in 7 World Cup games.

  • Over the last 5 head-to-heads, France has 3 victories, England has 1 victory, and 1 game ended in a draw.

• CXSports says: This might be the bronze final — the game nobody wants to play, or maybe even watch. But there’s another title race taking place here that makes this one worth watching — the Golden Boot. Right now, Messi tops the chart with eight goals and four assists, which puts him ahead of Mbappé who also has 8 goals, but only three assists. So this one’s Mbappé’s last chance to get clear before Messi can respond. Then, there’s also Kane and Bellingham who are both sitting on six, and both have already recorded two braces apiece this tournament, so they’re within reach.
  
  Of course, that competition’s secondary to what’s actually going on here — a France vs England third-place playoff. So let’s take a look at that, starting with the basic dynamics. Unfortunately, the bronze final is usually one of those affairs played by two squads that were gutted just days earlier, with managers likely to rotate, men whose minds are already on the beach, and nothing but token medal at stake. With that said, the Golden Boot dynamics we just touched on may well bring a little extra energy to this that might otherwise not have been there. Although, maybe that energy might be a little one-sided.
  
  The reality here is that England’s two Golden Boot ‘contenders’ (Kane and Bellingham) are only really contenders if Mbappé and Messi fail to score. So if they’re not sufficiently motivated, that might just further exaggerate one of the flaws that left England exposed to Argentina — a side that’s scored 13 goals with 12 of those coming from just two men. So relying on Kane and Bellingham to conjure something (particularly when the middle of the pitch is being lost) might be the kind of thing France will punish hard. Don’t forget that France had only conceded twice in their first six matches before Spain finally cracked them. So England’s already narrow path to goals is likely to be dangerously narrow here.
  
  We also can’t help but note that France are 16-4 across seven games while England’s 14-8. So, on that front, they're arguably the stronger side. And the fact they probably have the single most motivated player on the field in a fixture where motivation is probably a scarce commodity will likely be a major influence on this game.
  
  As for what we should expect from the scoreline, don’t be surprised if this one gets a bit loose. Bronze finals are historically loose. Both defences will probably be rotated, and neither side really has anything to lose here — a third-place finish just isn’t that meaningful to powerhouses like France and England, both of which once fancied themselves as potential World Cup champions.

• Score prediction: 3-1 for France

Bet Option #1

• Bet: France Victory

• Odds Range: 1.65-2.25

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.30-1.54

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s it for today. Tomorrow, we’ll be back with the big one — our prediction for the Spain vs Argentina final.

Until then, we hope you enjoy the World Cup… if you can.