Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

This week, and despite the predictions (whoops), Italy failed to make it to this year’s World Cup. That makes it three in a row — something the local press has now labeled “The World Cup Curse”. Although that hasn’t stopped the team from continuing to make World Cup preparations… 😂

In any case, as you’d expect, the entire debacle has been co-opted by everyone from politicians to celebrity chefs. Some are calling for radical individual accountability (calls for Federation president to resign). And others are calling for a bottom-up, grassroots overhaul to help develop the youth.

Now for what’s ahead in this week’s edition of What Are the Odds?

• This week’s best odds and predictions. 🦵⚽

• A little Man United April Fool’s fun. 🏟️✨

• Senegal’s head coach spitting fire. 🔥💪

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⚽ PSG vs Toulouse
🏟️ Ligue 1 (France)
📅 Friday 03 April; 20:45 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Killer odds on a PSG side that’s poised to dominate this match.

• CXSports says: This one looks like another typical PSG home game against a mid-table Ligue 1 side. While Toulouse can contribute to the scoreline, they certainly won’t be able to control it. Particularly given PSG’s recent output of 2.6 goals per game vs Toulouse, which will likely overwhelm a Toulouse side that’s currently conceding 1.4 per game while showing no defensive stability. Ultimately, the best-case scenario for Toulouse here is attempting to turn this into a blow-for-blow trade. But given PSG’s stats, that’s the sort of thing they’ll still punish. If this opens up even slightly, this ends up heading towards a 3+ goal game for PSG.

• Score prediction: 3-1 for PSG

Option #1

• Bet: PSG Victory

• Odds Range: 1.14-1.32

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.40-1.58

▶▶Full Match Details: [Read More]

⚽ Santos vs Clube Do Remo
🏟️ Serie A (Brazil)
📅 Friday 03 April; 00:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: There’s a nice, safe double chance play with some okay odds given the margins.

• CXSports says: Both sides are currently averaging around 1.2 goals scored per game over their last five. And that tells us two things immediately. First, this is likely going to be a low-scoring affair on aggregate. And second, there’s no attacking edge here. Ultimately, the difference in this game lives in the defensive margins, which is where Santos (currently conceding 1.2 goals per game) pulls ahead of Remo (1.6 per game conceded). With that said, Santos has a habit of drawing games, with three of their last five ending in equality, including when they play at home. That might leave open the possibility of Remo playing for equality here, even if Santos holds the only real edge in this game.

• Score prediction: 1-0 for Santos or 1-1 Draw

Option #1

• Bet: Double Chance (Santos / Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.07-1.15

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Under 3.5)

• Odds Range: 1.20-1.38

▶▶Full Match Details: [Read More]

⚽ Palmeiras vs Gremio RS
🏟️ Serie A (Brazil)
📅 Friday 03 April; 02:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Another neat little double-chance play if you like to play things safe. Otherwise the Over/Under looks solid given both sides’ low-scoring stats.

• CXSports says: Palmeiras have won four of their last five (albeit, by narrow margins), concede just 0.8 goals per game, and average 1.4 goals scored per game in their last five. That’s the hallmark of a team comfortable finishing the job with tight margins in closed games. Gremio, meanwhile, only have one win in five (along with three draws), and scores and concedes at a rate of 1.2 goals per game. Again, we have tight margins and closed games, but unlike Palmeiras, Gremio hasn’t been able to finish the job. Recent head-to-head history backs this up, too, with 2 out of the last 3 head-to-heads ending 1-0 (in favor of Palmeiras). With that said, the last time these two met ended in favor of Germio. And while Palmeiras was on the road in that one, it does show we can’t entirely rule out the Gremio threat in this one, even if their recent form suggests the best they’ll be able to manage is a draw… if they’re lucky.

• Score prediction: 1-0 for Palmeiras or 1-1 Draw

Option #1

• Bet: Double Chance (Palmeiras / Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.06-1.15

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Under 3.5)

• Odds Range: 1.20-1.39

▶▶Full Match Details: [Read More]

⚽ Bayer Leverkusen vs Wolfsburg
🏟️ Bundesliga (Germany)
📅 Saturday 04 April; 15:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Leverkusen’s clean edge in attack and home advantage make this a solid play showing good value.

• CXSports says: Both teams here have atrocious defensive histories leading into this, with Leverkusen conceding around 2 goals per game and Wolfsburg blowing its record out to 2.2. And sadly for Wolfsburg, they’re also worse off in attack. Much worse — 0.8 goals scored per game vs 1.6 for Leverkusen. The head-to-head data doesn’t offer much hope for Wolfsburg, either — the last time these two met (on Wolfsburg’s home turf), Leverkusen walked away with a 1-3 victory. They’re also undefeated in this fixture since 2021 — don’t expect this game to change that, even if Wolfsburg might manage to sneak a goal in owing to Leverkusen’s equally atrocious defense.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Bayer Leverkusen

Option #1

• Bet: Bayer Leverkusen Victory

• Odds Range: 1.26-1.46

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 1.5)

• Odds Range: 1.07-1.16

▶▶Full Match Details: [Read More]

Want to get the best odds on these predictions?

In case you missed it, yesterday was April Fool’s day.

And to celebrate, Man United put out their definitive list of greatest goals ever. (Which, no surprises here, mostly looks like a compilation of absolute KAKTORS).

Since we love a little self-deprecating humor here in the WATO offices, we’re going to reward the effort.

So for that little video, here’s a quick celebration of how good Man United can be when they’re actually playing at the top of their game… a celebration in the form of a quick quick trivia quiz from our friends at Masters of Trivia.

Question: How many Premier League titles has Manchester United won?

• A: 13

• B: 15

• C: 18

• D: 20

Think you know the answer?

Read to the end to see if you were right.

⚽ Freiburg vs Bayern Munich
🏟️ Bundesliga (Germany)
📅 Saturday 04 April; 15:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: With both teams showing a majority of +2.5 results in recent games (especially Bayern), the over/under on this looks solid.

• CXSports says: First things first, we’ll likely see some goals in this game, with 60% of Freiburg’s recent matches ending +2.5, and a whopping 80% of Bayern’s topping this mark. As for who’ll be doing the bulk of the scoring, that’ll likely be Bayern’s task — they’re undefeated in recent head-to-heads (4W/1D/0L in the last 5), average 2.8 goals per game across all past head-to-heads (while Freiburg’s only averaging 0.7 in this fixture), and, more impressively, have been averaging a full goal over this in all fixtures, showing 3.8 scored per game in their last 5. And did we mention they managed that while only conceding 0.8? As for Freiburg’s recent form across all fixtures, it’s good, but nothing compared with Bayern — they’re only averaging 2 goals a game while conceding 1.4, and their results have been thoroughly mixed, with 2W/1D/2L. In short, this one tilts heavily in Bayern’s favor.

• Score prediction: 1-3 for Bayern Munich

Option #1

• Bet: Bayern Munich Victory

• Odds Range: 1.22-1.44

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.24-1.40

▶▶Full Match Details: [Read More]

⚽ Chelsea vs Port Vale
🏟️ FA Cup Quarterfinal (England)
📅 Saturday 04 April; 18:15 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Sure, the odds aren’t great. But we can’t complain given this is basically a sure thing.

• CXSports says: In their last five EFL League One games, Port Vales has only managed to score 3 goals (0.6 per game) while conceding 8 (1.6 per game). That’s a terrible record even by League One standards. That leaves them in a position where they’re more or less a lost cause against just about any Premier League squad (two divisions higher). Even more so when that Premier League squad’s averaging 1.71 goals scored per game and 1.23 conceded across the season, which Chelsea is. Save for an “act of god”, there’s only one possible outcome here — Chelsea leaves Port Vale in the dust.

• Score prediction: 3-0 for Chelsea

Option #1

• Bet: Chelsea Victory

• Odds Range: 1.01-1.08

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.40-1.63

▶▶Full Match Details: [Read More]

⚽ Southampton vs Arsenal
🏟️ FA Cup Quarterfinal (England)
📅 Saturday 04 April; 21:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: This one’s a classic “table-topping first-division powerhouse takes on a scrappy mid-table second-division dreamer” story.

• CXSports says: Southampton looks good coming into this. They’re unbeaten in five, conceding just 0.4 goals per game, and grinding out clean sheet victories like a well-oiled machine. But let’s be real here — they’re doing that at the second-division Championship level, which is a whole other world to the Premier League which Arsenal’s not only competing in, but currently topping. And while Southampton does have some Premier League experience (so probably won’t be entirely overwhelmed by Arsenal), their head-to-head history against Arsenal doesn’t build much of a case for them. They lost both of their games vs Arsenal in the 24-25 season, and haven’t had a victory in this fixture since the 21-22, back when Arsenal was just a humble mid-table contender.

• Score prediction: 0-1 for Arsenal

Option #1

• Bet: Arsenal Victory

• Odds Range: 1.13-1.32

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Under 3.5)

• Odds Range: 1.45-1.66

▶▶Full Match Details: [Read More]

⚽ AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard
🏟️ Eredivisie (Netherlands)
📅 Saturday 04 April; 18:45 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: This one’s got one of the strongest Over/Under plays we’ve seen in a long time.

• CXSports says: Fun fact — 80% of Alkmaar’s last 5 games in the Eredivisie went over 2.5 goal, while a whopping 100% went over 2.5 goals for Fortuna. Tl;dr — expect to see plenty of goals in this game. Also, expect a little chaos — neither side has shown consistent control in recent games, with mixed results for both that mix strong wins with heavy losses. With all of that said, recent head-to-heads in this fixture have shown a strong home-side bias, with the last three seemingly being determined by home/away status. That would seem to favor Alkmaar here. Alkmaar’s advantage looks even stronger once we look further back in the head-to-head history, with 8 of the last 10 ending in their favor. Chances are, this one continues that trend.

• Score prediction: 3-1 for AZ Alkmaar

Option #1

• Bet: AZ Alkmaar Victory

• Odds Range: 1.20-1.37

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.24-1.44

▶▶Full Match Details: [Read More]

Make your sportsbook work for you!

As we reported a couple of weeks ago, Senegal was recently stripped of its Cup of Nations title 2 months after winning it.

In case you missed it, the reason they lost it was because of a walk off they staged during the final. Apparently, that’s against the rules.

Since then, Senegal’s head coach, Pape Thiaw, has come out swinging. And fundamentally, what he’s saying is right.

So what’s the moral of the story?

Sometimes life throws you unexpected “technicalities” that can really set you back.

The important thing is to keep your head up and remember what makes you fundamentally great.

Want to learn more about Senegal?

Masters of Trivia is the only trivia app where every player is rewarded. Play all the trivia quizzes you can handle and earn real rewards simply for participating.

Take Masters of Trivia for a spin with the Senegal Trivia Quiz today.

PS: The answer to this week’s question was [D] — Manchester United has won a total of 20 Premier League titles — a record only matched by Liverpool. Discover more trivia like this with the Manchester United Trivia Quiz.